The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. The goal of the report is to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over. Alternative worlds open pdf 0 b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. Global trends to 2030 ruby gropas, team leader, social affairs, epsc, european commission lisbon, 28 november 2017.
As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by. The highlevel conference will convene more than 150 participants from the policymaking, business, media, and technology communities in the united states and from around the world in an unprecedented gathering to discuss. Global trends 2030 reports of all possible future worlds. Global trends is the intelligence communitys major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world over the next two decades. It also critiques it on grounds that include failing to learn from feedback on the 2005 report, over. Given the inexorable trend of moores law for the last 50 years, id say that neglect of technology is criminally foolish. The european strategy and policy analysis system espas provides a framework for cooperation and consultation at administrative level, on a voluntary basis, between the european parliament, the european commission, the council of the european union, and the european external action service, with the committee of the regions and the european economic and social committee as observers, to work. Alternative worlds open pdf 0b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. The global trends 2030 report depicts three hypothetical future worlds and examines their implications. Alternativeworldsa publication of the national intelligence council 2. In depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources.
In all four of the alternative visions of the future, u. Alternative worlds leads with the stalled engines alternative world a scenario in which the united states and europe turn inward and globalization stalls as one of its bookends, illustrating the most plausible worstcase scenario. Cia global trends 2030 by exopolitics hungary issuu. Alternative worlds by national research council 143 ratings, 3. The nic global trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the us government and around the world. Also, asia will have surpassed north america and europe combined in terms of global power, based upon gdp gross domestic product, population. The national intelligence councils nic global trends report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forwardlooking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance. As with the nics national intelligence council previous global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the futurewhich would be an impossible featbut instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global.
Granted, they did say that new technologies could be game changers, but then they didnt follow up on such highly likely events. We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures, writes the chairman of the national intelligence council nic christopher kojm in the councils latest forwardlooking quadrennial report, global trends 2030. Arguably, darker scenarios are imaginable, including a complete breakdown and reversal of globalization due to a potential large. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. We stand at the cusp of a new era world population growing rapidly technological advancement source. A game without a referee the relative decline of the west, the process of globalisation, and the emergence of new powers is creating a world with several interconnected poles. Govt report predicts cyborgs, rise of china for 2030. It seeks to distil into compact form the main trends that will shape the global geopolitical, economic and social systems of coming decades, with special reference to their 1 the four reports commissioned by espas are. Dec 07, 2014 however, the combination of trends, game changers, and alternative worlds provides sufficient breadth of analysis to give any critic an idea of how alternative global scenarios may arise. Trends and strategie s for europe vii next 5 to 10 years, a large domestic savings and investment imbalance is likely to follow. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading global trends 2030.
Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed. Dec, 2012 nonstate world driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. Slaughter1 abstract the article acknowledges some of the strengths of the nic report such as its use of scenarios. National intelligence council releases global trends 2030. On monday december 10, 2012 the office of the director of national intelligence. Burrows, counselor, us national intelligence council. How these six gamechangers evolve and interact with each other and with the megatrends and tectonic shifts will determine what kind of transformed world we will experience in 2030.
Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the ra. The atlantic councils brent scowcroft center on international security will host a twoday conference launching the us national intelligence council s nic global trends 2030. Will the international monetary fund imf and world bank exist in 2030. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. Alternative worlds of the us national intelligence council nic comes to a similar. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future as with previous editions, the national intelligence council hopes that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities.
According to policymakers in the us, eu, russia, and nato, trends may bend in many potential directions, ranging from the rise of technologically empowered individuals. New health technologies will continue to extend the average age of populations around the world, ameliorate debilitating physical and mental conditions, and improve overall wellbeing. T he world of 2030 will be radically potential black swansdiscrete eventswould transformed from our world today. Or of nat io ctalternative re na f the di l in llige teworlds eo ic n f ce ofa publication of the national intelligence councildecember 2012nic 2012001isbn 9781929667215to view. Bill burkewhite what will be the shape of the united nations security council unsc in 2030. This year, principal author mathew burrows and his colleagues focus on a series of plausible. A condensed version of the report is also available 1. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. Unique among intelligence products of this depth and stature, the national intelligence councils quadrennial global trends report is. Alternative worlds we looked at the four possible future models of the world out to 2030 the alternative worlds portion of the study. Alternative worlds report released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council. Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their farreaching impacts on businesses, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives. Global trends and risks that will shape the world over the next 20 years 4 1. Overview of the national intelligence council report on.
As the title of the national intelligence council s nic capstone publication suggests, this look at possible alternative worlds is the essence of the study. Will the international monetary fund imf and world bank exist. Alternative worlds kindle edition by burrows, mathew. Asia rises, the west declines the planet may also be racked by wars over food and water. Global trends 2030s six potential gamechangers the vast changes resulting from the megatrends and tectonic shifts alone ensure a transformed world by 2030. Nov 10, 20 peter groen take the time to look over the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils nic series of reports aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future entitled global trends 2030. Jan 07, 20 nonstate world driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges.
Deloitte ports industry global trends in the ports industry 17 each driver represents a shift in demographics, society, technology, or the economy that impacts the future. Burrows, counselor to the national intelligence council, discusses the global trends 2030. Instead of a set of cassandralike forecasts of doom or a pollyannaish burst of optimism, global trends 2030 offers a balanced presentation on how the world. Global trends 2030 quotes by national research council. Alternative worlds report and exploring its consequences for us strategy moving forward. The world economic forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Alternative worlds is a draft report being prepared by the us national intelligence council to be released after the presidential election, in december 2012. Alternative worlds free ebook download as pdf file.
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